By Nicholas Chesterley
In the 1930s and 40s President Franklin D. Roosevelt delivered around thirty fireside chats. These were a series of radio addresses on the Great Depression and World War II that were a crucial part of his leadership in that turbulent time, helping calm and reassure the country. When asked to do more of them, though, he declined: he could not spare the four or five days of hard work and preparation that he required for each talk.
It is hard to imagine anyone, much less a world leader, having four or five days of uninterrupted time to dedicate to a single task today, facing as we do a constant stream of emerging news, technology, and social media updates. And the present can have pressing, urgent needs. But it can also crowd out more long-term challenges, from pandemic preparedness to resource overuse, climate change, natural disaster preparedness, and the impacts of automation and population aging. While a focus on short-term issues is understandable, long-term issues left unattended often get worse.
Book Cover: Future-Generation Government
I recently published a book, Future-Generation Government, that draws on my background in and insights from behavioural science to propose possible strategies that could help us balance the scales and encourage future-focused policies and the anticipation of future crises. Below I provide four strategies that could help governments avoid the short-term trap and better focus on the future.
First, we need to make the impact of our decisions on the future obvious. For the same reason measuring energy use reduces household energy consumption or measuring calories can affect diet, measuring our long-term national wealth, not just short-term gross domestic product, would make the future more salient and so nudge us to take action on long-term issues. “What we measure affects what we do,” as economics Nobel Prize winners Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen along with economist Jean-Paul Fitoussi observed. And our long-term wealth includes not just our physical capital, but also our natural capital, the health and education of our populations, and even the quality of our institutions, all of which could be better measured.
The UN Inclusive Wealth project, for example, helpfully studied inclusive wealth: the total produced, human, and natural capital in 140 countries. While almost all countries saw their GDP increase over the time period studied, inclusive wealth increased at only half the rate of GDP, and almost a third of countries saw a drop in their inclusive wealth, often due to natural resource extraction. Countries that used only GDP to assess their performance would have a misleadingly positive idea of how things were going.
Hubble telescope
Second, we can make it easier for governments to focus on the future by carving out space and time for it in how we make decisions. Introducing decision heuristics and guardrails around our decisions can remind us to consider the future in many different ways. Dedicated teams can stay focused on the future when short-term priorities derail other efforts, diversity among decision-makers can help deliberations better assess and anticipate future consequences, red teams can challenge decisions on whether they consider the future enough, and foresight exercises can consider whether decisions are suitable for a wide range of futures, all helping remind us of the future and nudge us to consider it as policy decisions are made. Professor Michael MacKenzie, for example, has suggested governments should issue posterity impact statements to subject all their decisions to future-regarding scrutiny, complemented by institutions or other actors that can delay or derail actions that might be harmful to the future. Embedding these and other elements in how decisions are made can further increase the salience of the future and make sure it is not neglected.
Third, governments can commit to long-term measures. Just like someone freezing their credit card in ice to prevent impulse spending or setting up automatic deductions from their paycheck to increase retirement saving, governments can introduce commitments to the future, effectively introducing a cost to deviating from the long-term path. For governments, that could include constitutional requirements related to the future, though doing so can also limit future flexibility, as well as setting up institutions to provided a dedicated voice for future generations in government deliberations.
Finland’s Committee for the Future, for example, is embedded in its Parliament and nudges Finland towards long-term thinking, complementing a range of long-term institutions within its government. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund supports the sustainable use of oil revenues so that future generations of Norwegians can continue to benefit even after the oil runs out. Setting up an institution focused on long-term considerations can provide more space for long-term thinking and give it more independence from the short-term pressures faced by governments.
A final strategy is to experiment and iterate. The future is inherently uncertain; no one knows for sure what will happen, especially in our fast-changing world. Attempting to decide everything in advance is a recipe for trouble when new challenges will no doubt arise. Instead, we need to try something, test it, then rinse and repeat. Scale up what works and cancel what doesn’t. To do so, we need to give our governments the space to say they don’t know all the answers, adapt as they go, and to fail as they seek to identify what works best.
This isn’t easy, but there are interesting examples elsewhere, from the extensive experiments run by the UK Behavioural Insights Team and the U.S. requirement for departments to develop learning agendas to the Chinese introduction of special economic zones to test new approaches to economic policy, among others. Testing multiple options can take advantage of the short-term pressure for results by providing early wins for potential announcement based on what works best.
We can also learn from past successes. The Global Seed Vault in Svalbard seeks to protect the genetic heritage of our crops against future crises. Sometimes referred to as a doomsday vault, it is designed to survive a loss of power, the melting of the ice caps, the many roaming polar bears, and even the force of a missile or asteroid strike, a long-term investment in the future. Recent efforts to measure natural capital have strengthened our ability to understand the wealth represented in our forests, wetlands, and natural ecosystems. Finland’s Committee for the Future has been in place since 1993 and appears to have had a significant impact on long-term thinking in Finland, while Wales has a Commissioner for Future Generations which seeks to make sure that the needs of present generations are met without compromising those of the future. There are many others.
These strategies and others can help us shape our institutions to better consider the future, building fire-proof houses instead of just putting out fires. Even small improvements can build up over time and nudge our decisions to be more long-term. As the world changes, we need to test and try new forms of decision-making and governance in order to adapt our systems and societies to the modern world and focus on what matters most.
Nick Chesterley is a behavioural economist and public servant. He completed his PhD in behavioural economics at the University of Oxford as a Clarendon Scholar and SSHRC Doctoral Fellow and has held a range of leadership roles in government.